Pick'em

Only one game within the division this weekend after Green Bay thumped Detroit on Thanksgiving and Matthew Stafford fell back down to earth.

Minnesota 27 Chicago 17- I actually think this game will be closer than it would appear on paper. Chicago has been in an uncontrolled nose dive for the last 6 weeks or so, but I think they hang tough for awhile before Minnesota pulls away. Despite all their success the Vikings are still rather one-dimensional in my mind and making Brett Favre throw 40 plus times a game to beat you is a much better option than letting Adrian Peterson trample you.

That being said Jay Cutler has shown that coupled with his current offensive line and receiving corp he is bound to make mistakes. The Viking's defense is much to good to allow him to make very many before punishing him. Expect a small lead at halftime that steadily grows until suddenly midway through the fourth quarter there is little hope for Chicago.

What NFC North is Thankful For

Since it is the season......

The well might seem dry in Detroit as they sport a 2-9 record and your rookie quarterback has a rating of 62 and has thrown 18 picks. But at least the closest Matt Millen will get to the team is the commentary booth (I don't think ESPN is even that cold to make him start calling Lions games) and their last season was not littered with short term deals that jeopardized the long term goals of the team. At least they have the Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl.....right.

Vikings fans on the other hand are ready to begin talking in tongues and sacrificing first borns they are so thankful for the recent success in Minnesota. Not only is the team cruising to a division title, but they are doing it with a Packer saint. For Packers fans this is like seeing the pope convert to Scientology after politely being told not to appear in public anymore. All of their moves in the last few years have seem to hit from Jared Allen to Percy Harvin and with the most dynamic player in the league in the backfield....and has not been seriously hurt in awhile......there is much to be thankful for, hell even Joe Mauer is an MVP and the Twins are getting a new stadium.....it still gets cold as hell though so hopefully they will stay grounded.

Even though it is difficult to look North and see their rivals steal their man and be so happy, the Packers have appeared to move on. At the moment they seem to be on their way to sneak into the playoffs while the other NFC wild card suitors beat up on each other. Their quarterback is hard to not love, with an awful line he has put up monster numbers and has started transforming the stats into wins. Still has not shown any late game flashes that will cement the torch transfer, but just give it time it will happen this season. So give thanks your quarterback is successful, not in his 40's, and can walk without pain killers.

At this point I think Bears fans should go with the lovable loser stance they have adopted with the Cubs. I mean why not, it would be easy then to move from early October failure to a disappointing regular season. Seriously though, be thankful because the team got what they asked for. They wanted a play maker with a big arm at quarterback not named after a dinosaur. The bump they have hit this season I think was predictable, hopefully it will not breed a letdown in Jay Cutler that carries on into next year. But at least you are not Detroit.

Happy Thanksgiving all and keep your heads up and drinks down

Pick'em

Detroit 10 Cleveland 7- This game features two rather anemic offenses which I think will both get dominated by the other teams defenses. Cleveland defensively has had some spirited efforts sporadically throughout the season and I think this will be one of those. The game will be decided by which quarterback makes fewer mistakes which I think will be Stafford because of his better offensive support staff.

Green Bay 27 San Francisco 14- I do not think the Packers will look as good as they did last week, but with Alex Smith on the opposing side I don't think they will have too. The Niners have lost 4 of the last 5 and I think after they raised some eyebrows early in the season we are seeing their true colors.


Minnesota 31 Seattle 13- Viking defense is to good to be beaten up by the Seahawks. I see them putting the their offense in favorable positions the entire day which Brett Favre and company will capitalize on.

Chicago 17 Philadelphia 34- Every week is becoming more and more important for the Eagles and their playoff hopes, which translates into them taking it to the Bears. Jay Cutler and the offense has been sporadic the entire year and the offensive line has looked slow and old. Put that against a blitz happy defense and I see turnovers.

NFC Division Winners

.....and the NFC.

NFC West- Cardinals
Just slowly pulling away from the rest of the division. Each team is significantly worse than Arizona, but can show flashes to compete with them for short periods of the season. Niners and Seahawks are just to inconsistent and have begun to separate from the leader significantly.

NFC South- Saints
Not only division winners, but likely NFC regular season champs. What is most interesting about this team is how they will perform in the playoffs. Seem like the kind of team that is built for the regular season, but Drew Brees has enough moxy to make enough things happen. Really like this team which appears to have a lot to prove especially the defense. Atlanta might make a postseason appearance, but I do not see it. The honeymoon has definitely ended with Matt Ryan, but he will be a quality starter. To many good teams in the back half of their schedule for me to feel confident putting them in the playoffs.
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NFC North- Minnesota
Just wrote a long article on Packers chances at the postseason so will glance over that, but the Vikings are going to cruise into a first round bye, and possibly home field advantage for the playoffs. Physically dominate the bad teams in the league which really erases much chance at being upset, would love to see them and Saints play. I think everyone would love to watch that match up.

NFC East- Eagles
Best schedule setup between the contenders. Hard to predict what will happen to an up and down Giants team coming off a bye. Even if they come around however they still will have a hard time taking down both the Eagles and Cowboys. Cowboys are safest pick, but showed little to no life against the Packers. Will regain some of their mojo with the Redskins coming up, but it is hard to trust a team that seems so slow and old on the offensive line. If another letdown happens in Dallas expect not only Wade Phillips to be gone, but several key members of team. Looking at you Roy Williams and possibly Tony Romo. I believe the Eagles are going to rattle off a few wins in a row and finish the season playing their best football of the season.

AFC Division Winners

A rundown of all the divisions and my predictions for who will end up winning them.

AFC East- Patriots
Easy one to start with. Only team in the division that seems to be getting better every week and already had the best team to start the season. Miami has had a nice season, but they just win the games they are suppose to and after last year they are not sneaking up on anyone. Jets have been exposed for what they are, a team with a quarterback that is a few years away.....as you can tell by the drop off of coverage for the team so people don't begin to think he is awful.

AFC West- Chargers
Interesting division as the gap between the teams start closing. In first meeting Eddie Royal returned 2 kicks for touchdowns, which I am assuming will not happen again. Couple that with Kyle Orton crashing down to earth resulting in losses and an injury I see these teams regardless of what happens Sunday moving in opposite directions. Luckily for both teams their wild card chances are good due to the 4 free wins against the rest of the division.

AFC North- Steelers
Cincinnati is definitely a legitimate team, but I do not think we have seen how good the Steelers are going to be. Only one game back (kinda 2 with tiebreaker) I see them making a run and catching the Bengals. Both teams go to playoffs though. Another team that will pick it up as the season progresses is Baltimore who will be the best team not in the playoffs this season, but having to play Pittsburgh twice still does not bode well for the Ravens. The Browns are bad.

AFC South- Indianapolis
Big surprise here. Much better than anyone else in the division, Houston is worse than what people think and the Titans are better but will not matter at all. Whole season kinda turned into a warm-up for the Colts as soon as the Titans tanked early in the year.

Giants, Eagles, Falcons, Packers.......2 Spots

Before we start Carolina, San Francisco and Chicago are all at 4-5 and still in the playoff picture but besides the recent success of the Panthers there is little evidence to suggest a run from any of these three.

Giants- Hellish remaining schedule including Atlanta, Denver, Philadelphia, Dallas in the next four weeks and Minnesota (likely Vikings will have clinched and will be licking their wounds and preparing for the playoffs by this point however). Three of the next four are at home which could save them but remember that their five wins are against Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Dallas (early in season before their recently ended eruption), and Washington. Combined record 14-31 with most of their wins coming against each other. I think everyone is interested to see how this team responds after the bye week.

Eagles- In the past Andy Reid has had streaky teams that got hot during the end of the year. Their next two games are against the Bears and Redskins, which are both great candidates to get your team clicking again....especially after back to back losses. These wins could help propel them through the last part of their schedule which gets significantly harder.

Falcons- If this team wins the games it should, they will probably make the playoffs. Tampa Bay 2x, Jets, and Bills. Tough part will be surviving in next four in which they play Giants, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. Giving up two games against competing wild card teams could hurt them but last three games are winnable and could make a late comeback in this race.

Packers- Easiest schedule of the four and the only team that is left out of the round robin of 5-4 teams. Which means they do not have to go directly through any of these teams to slip into the playoffs. Easy and hard games alternate fairly evenly, making their remaining schedule less like a gauntlet that could run them into the ground with three straight losses.

Prediction: Packers and Eagles will make the playoffs of these four teams with Philly winning a tiebreaker over the Falcons. Best chance at playoffs for a non 5 win team is San Francisco.

Packers Playoff Hopes

Since the Packers decided not to fade away from the playoff conversation this past Sunday, it is necessary to look at their playoff hopes.

Remaining Schedule:
San Francisco
@ Detroit
Baltimore
@Chicago
@Pittsburgh
Seattle
@Arizona

Realistically they must win 4....maybe 3 but that is a big maybe since there are 3 other teams with the same record competing for 2 spots ( and 3 more teams at 4-5).

If all goes according to plan the Pack will likely take care of Detroit and Seattle at home, while losing to Pittsburgh on the road. Now obviously this is no given since they recently have lost to 1-8 Tampa and beat a division leading Dallas team that looked impressive in the previous weeks. With that said I do not see them losing because Detroit is Detroit and Seattle in week 15 with a playoff chance on the line in Lambeau doesn't seem like a game they will take lightly.

The team has definitely shown flashes of success that could convince someone they can win the other remaining games, or lose them all. Starting with San Francisco is positive because it is unlikely the defense will be able to match the performance they unleashed on Dallas, but with Alex Smith at the helm for the 49ers the result on the scoreboard will probably not be much different. Even if it turns into a shootout, the Packers still have to be favored against a secondary that has been scorched (just ask Roddy White how much fun playing them can be). Combine all this with loses in 4 of the last 5 and I see the Packers with a significant edge......but it still is the same team from the rest of the season not just the one that beat it's first significant opponent of the season.

The Bears have looked so bad in the last 5 weeks it is hard to say where they will be at during this part of the season.....new coach perhaps.......that is for another article.

Baltimore will be the most interesting game and possibly the most telling about how this team will play if they do in fact make the playoffs. At home against a quality, veteran team who will also likely be fighting for their playoff lives is still obviously winnable but also set up for a brawl of a game in which teams throw in the proverbial kitchen sink. This might show us the most about the this team, but they can still lose and make playoffs because.......

Arizona in week 17 with the division locked away is not the real Arizona. Could definitely rest starters, especially their ancient Jesus loving quarterback. A team that has already gone through the playoffs and recovered after struggling late in the season to go on to the Super Bowl is likely not going to invest a lot in this game. Especially if their is a possibility that the same team will be coming back for the first round of the playoffs.....interesting subplot but we will not get ahead of ourselves.

Pick'em

Minnesota 34 Detroit 13- The Vikings coming off a bye week and a huge divisional win over the Packers will come out excited to pound Stafford and company. They have all but sealed up the division with the Bears self-destruction on Thursday and Green Bay's inabilities, but I do not seem them overlooking this match-up. Even though Detroit has defiantly played hard, even through all of last season, I don't see them putting up much of a fight in this one and will be overwhelmed early on.

Green Bay 24 Dallas 31- Another classic Packer loss, look awful let the other team get ahead and then make a comeback and fall just short. The problem with these games is the last impression you get of Green Bay is them mopping up the competition. This might be the game where people stop talking about all their potential and promise and start calling them a bad team. I see them struggling against the running game of Dallas and the pass rush which looked strong last week verses the Eagles. Expect the comeback and all that stuff, but do not expect the same reaction from the media.

Pack Attack

Well....it has finally happened. The Packers have lost one of the games they had to win to make the playoffs. Not that in a 16 game season being upset is the end of the world, but with the way they have played against quality opponents they really needed all the gimme wins they could get. But it is the NFL and even those games that appear like a lay-up are against professional athletes.

Three picks and a block punt are a good way to allow a team to beat you, but what is truly fascinating is how similar this team is to last years team. Everyone has thought they where better than they actually were and even still many see them as a high powered offense that is dangerous. The problem is their wins are against three 1-win teams and the Bears in week 1 where Jay Cutler was on another planet.

Now I did not see this loss coming, the Packers have seem to come out to play in games against the bottom tier teams, but would a win really change how we thought of them. The crazy part of this season for them was that their schedule was so weak that if they would have won last week they would almost be a lock for 8 or 9 wins. Hopefully, for the cheesseheads this loss wakes them up, but I just can not see their defense being able to do a lot against a hot Cowboys team next week.

With little to no pressure and trouble stopping the run, it could be a long day for the Packers defense. People still seem to believe however that Aaron Rogers can play catch up and win shootouts for them. The only real evidence of this however is in blowouts and when the team is down by a substantial amount. He is talented and capable of putting up mammoth numbers, but with no running game and no offensive line he is going to turn the ball over and be sacked an awful amount for the remainder of the season.

The Matthew Stafford Investment

Halfway through his rookie campaign I think it is time for our first look at how well Matthew Stafford and his massive contract/potential/ability/inexperience are doing.

Stafford and his $41.7 million guaranteed (twice what Eli got as a rookie) thus far has had one game with more touchdowns than interceptions and just had his first multi-touchdown game, which was paired with a career high five touchdowns against the Seahawks.

His first four drives of the game resulted in two touchdown passes (although the drives consisted of one play for two yards and three yards for 29 yards, but we will let it slide) and two field goal attempts. He followed this with one field goal in the next eight possessions, sprinkled in where 5 picks and a max drive of 42 yards. A couple points on this before we reflect on his entire season.

With a rookie quarterback making his sixth start and a 17-point first quarter lead why are the Lions giving him 42 pass attempts. Especially since the Lions averaged over five yards a carry during the game (slightly misleading because only had 21 attempts and one was a 31 yard scamper by Kevin Smith, still though). Is 21 attempts really protecting your young quarterback and asking him to pass for 2/3 of the game is just begging for disaster.

The strongest player on the Lions is receiver Calvin Johnson who due to his own and Stafford's injuries has failed to really establish a solid connection so far this season. No wide receiver has had any kind of consistent success with Stafford under center because like most young players he seems to prefer shorter throws to backs and tight ends. Say what you will about Daunte Culpepper, but he has no fear to wing the ball to the outside. When your leaving such an intricate piece of the offense and allowing him to waste space on the outside it not only hurts your team but pisses off the fan base. It is hard to explain why your best player is only getting 2 or 3 catches a game and Casey Fitzsimmons is getting more targets.

The only game the team has won so far is when Stafford did not have a pick and the offense has seemed to disintegrate even further as the season has progressed. His injury might explain some of the setbacks that have taken place but in his second week back he looks just as uncomfortable and flighty as he did in his first game. It is difficult to criticize him however because of the total lack of support his offensive line provides him. Combine that with a young qb who struggles with reads and you have a bad line and someone who does not know where to look except initially, leading to sacks and in the Lions case mostly bad looking interceptions.

The sad thing however is the fact that the next year or two might turn Stafford into Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, etc. At Georgia he seemed to struggle with looking off defenders and checking to other receivers, which has been compounded due to his added discomfort against NFL defenses. So instead of sitting him out and teaching him how to polish his skills in a more controlled environment, he is reverting backwards to his initial reactions. Experience is always important but he is not getting experience in the typical way and unless he is Peyton Manning this whole year could ruin him. Not to mention the emotional aspects of being beaten every week and suffer loads of turnovers.

The difference between the Jets and the Lions is the Jets have a game plan for their team and are sticking to it. They seem able to live with the failing of their young quarterback and not panicking. The Lions go into each week with a more do anything to win attitude which is useful in some cases, but you accidentally end up passing over 40 times with a rookie. What should have happened was to keep Stafford on the bench and be realistic about your chances for the season. Everyone needs to believe in their team and project that, but it almost appears to be a blind faith that has hurt the team in the long run. Play hard, work hard, try to win every week, but swallow your pride and accept it is not turning around this year or probably next. If the team continues down the road it is going they are just going to push back their recovery even further and waste 5 years giving up on Stafford and then drafting someone else and by that time the pieces you have in place now will be a shell of their actually ability. Losing and time are good at killing a player's confidence and ability. If you want Aaron Rogers instead of the last X number of Lions quarterbacks then the organization has to be patient. And honestly even with Tom Brady are the Lions going to the playoffs........not likely.

Pick'em

Chicago 31 Arizona 34- The Bears defense has been up and down all season and the Cardinals are going to catch them on a down week. While the Bears will be able to move the ball seemingly at will against a weak secondary, it feels like they just have to rough of a road to travel this season. I thought they where a year or two away before breaking out and in this game that prediction is going to start solidifying.

Green Bay 21 Tampa Bay 17- As much as I like picking the Packers to romp all over terrible teams, I think this week will be an exception. They are playing in Florida and are coming off a tough loss to Brett Favre and the Vikings, who had the perfect time for a bye week, which set them back a few games ini the division and clearly established the hierarchy of the league. They will make enough plays to pull this one out but do not expect it to be pretty.

Detroit 10 Seattle 41- The Lions can not move the ball or score on pretty much anyone without any semblance of consistency. I played a backyard pick-up game yesterday and a friend threw 9 touchdowns, leading him to believe he could have played college football....expect that kind of game from Seattle. They will beat them so bad that they will convince themselves that they are much better than what they actually are. The letdown will happen in the next few weeks, but it will be hard to argue with them after this dismantling.

ESPN coverage of Ryan Clark situation

While the intimate details about this discussion are seemingly unknown, how is this even an option. Ryan Clark suffers from sickle cell which for 1 percent of patients, which he falls into, that makes exercise at high altitudes a life threatening disease. Last time he played in Denver in 2007 he lost 30 pounds, lost his spleen, and his gall bladder. Again how is playing even an option.

The problem with this is how ESPN ran this story. The article headline "Steelers' Clark weighs life-threatening call" suggests that there is an actual debate going on about his availability for Monday night. The entire article then goes on to say,

"Because of that, the Steelers -- as would any NFL team -- must weigh the potential legal matters that might arise should a player become seriously ill after being permitted to play under such risky circumstances."

This tone gives off a cold feel that makes the decision feel very business like. And even from a straight X's and O's standpoint with no emotion toward the player the move of playing him would make no sense because he missed half a season when he played there before.

Following all this build-up is the statement that probably the Steelers will not play him. I mean obviously there is a story here but to build up the situation as something that is being "weighed" by the organization and then presenting no actual evidence to support this besides the fact they have not made a public decision about his status seems off base. Let the team decide before you make the situation out to be possibly play because it is worth the risk Clark might die; when it is actually unfathomable that they allow him to participate

Iowa City West Girl's Basketball Season Preview

Chaos. The goal of West High coach BJ Mayer this season is to create disorder and panic on the court as they try to improve on their 16-6 season and sub-state appearance of a year ago, while replacing roughly 60% of their offense.

“We want to create a tempo that's chaotic and crazy to get other teams out of their element...we want to wear teams down," says Mayer.

Mayer hopes a more upbeat offensive style combined with a high pressure defense will upset their opponents game plans and force them into mistakes.

The coach will look to seniors Kristin Fomon, Reed Mackenzie, and Courtney Fritz to provide leadership and help overcome the loss of the two top scorers from a season ago. Even though the group averaged only 14.6 points per game last season there is still optimism especially about Fomon’s chance to improve her play.

Kristin is a good shooter, but struggled last year to find her stroke. Hopefully she has a more productive season shooting the ball this year,” Mayer relayed.

Height and size will be the biggest obstacles the Trojans face this season with their tallest player listed at only 5’10. The team will combat this with their new style of play that will differ from last season’s emphasis on post play and result in more jump shots and 3-point opportunities.

“It is very important to get off to a good start and give our young players some confidence,” voiced Mayer.

The Trojans will begin their season against Fairfield on November 24 as begin Mississippi Valley Conference play on December 1 against Dubuque Wahlert.

Pick'em

Chicago 31 Cleveland 10- Chicago will come out pumped up and play well against one of the worst secondaries in the game. This would make me even angrier about last week after you see them click and tear up the field this Sunday. This win will spark talks that they are back in the chase for the division, but I do not see that happening at all.

Detroit 21 St. Louis 17- The game of the week. Honestly, St. Louis can not score, and Detroit's defense is not nearly as bad as everyone thinks. Without having to spend the entire game on the field, like they usually do, expect the Lions to put up a rather impressive game defensively. St. Louis will get some points off of turnovers and good field position and expect them to threaten for the win late, but they will be unable to execute and the Lions will continue their long slow trudge out of the cellar.

Green Bay 31 Minnesota 21- This prediction reflects my opinions of these two teams just for this week. I think Minnesota is a better team that will pull away slightly by the end of the regular season. That being said, the idea of being in 1st place in the division and bringing Brett Favre back home will be enough random factors to equalize these teams for a week. Brett Favre will also not tear up the Packers like he did during the meeting earlier in the season and the combination of weather and crowd hostility will cause him to struggle for the second week in a row. I expect for it to be noticeable that the Vikings are the better team, but to many things will go wrong early and then the Packers will hold on at the end.

(Photo courtesy of mouthpiecesports.com)