The Matthew Stafford Investment

Halfway through his rookie campaign I think it is time for our first look at how well Matthew Stafford and his massive contract/potential/ability/inexperience are doing.

Stafford and his $41.7 million guaranteed (twice what Eli got as a rookie) thus far has had one game with more touchdowns than interceptions and just had his first multi-touchdown game, which was paired with a career high five touchdowns against the Seahawks.

His first four drives of the game resulted in two touchdown passes (although the drives consisted of one play for two yards and three yards for 29 yards, but we will let it slide) and two field goal attempts. He followed this with one field goal in the next eight possessions, sprinkled in where 5 picks and a max drive of 42 yards. A couple points on this before we reflect on his entire season.

With a rookie quarterback making his sixth start and a 17-point first quarter lead why are the Lions giving him 42 pass attempts. Especially since the Lions averaged over five yards a carry during the game (slightly misleading because only had 21 attempts and one was a 31 yard scamper by Kevin Smith, still though). Is 21 attempts really protecting your young quarterback and asking him to pass for 2/3 of the game is just begging for disaster.

The strongest player on the Lions is receiver Calvin Johnson who due to his own and Stafford's injuries has failed to really establish a solid connection so far this season. No wide receiver has had any kind of consistent success with Stafford under center because like most young players he seems to prefer shorter throws to backs and tight ends. Say what you will about Daunte Culpepper, but he has no fear to wing the ball to the outside. When your leaving such an intricate piece of the offense and allowing him to waste space on the outside it not only hurts your team but pisses off the fan base. It is hard to explain why your best player is only getting 2 or 3 catches a game and Casey Fitzsimmons is getting more targets.

The only game the team has won so far is when Stafford did not have a pick and the offense has seemed to disintegrate even further as the season has progressed. His injury might explain some of the setbacks that have taken place but in his second week back he looks just as uncomfortable and flighty as he did in his first game. It is difficult to criticize him however because of the total lack of support his offensive line provides him. Combine that with a young qb who struggles with reads and you have a bad line and someone who does not know where to look except initially, leading to sacks and in the Lions case mostly bad looking interceptions.

The sad thing however is the fact that the next year or two might turn Stafford into Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, etc. At Georgia he seemed to struggle with looking off defenders and checking to other receivers, which has been compounded due to his added discomfort against NFL defenses. So instead of sitting him out and teaching him how to polish his skills in a more controlled environment, he is reverting backwards to his initial reactions. Experience is always important but he is not getting experience in the typical way and unless he is Peyton Manning this whole year could ruin him. Not to mention the emotional aspects of being beaten every week and suffer loads of turnovers.

The difference between the Jets and the Lions is the Jets have a game plan for their team and are sticking to it. They seem able to live with the failing of their young quarterback and not panicking. The Lions go into each week with a more do anything to win attitude which is useful in some cases, but you accidentally end up passing over 40 times with a rookie. What should have happened was to keep Stafford on the bench and be realistic about your chances for the season. Everyone needs to believe in their team and project that, but it almost appears to be a blind faith that has hurt the team in the long run. Play hard, work hard, try to win every week, but swallow your pride and accept it is not turning around this year or probably next. If the team continues down the road it is going they are just going to push back their recovery even further and waste 5 years giving up on Stafford and then drafting someone else and by that time the pieces you have in place now will be a shell of their actually ability. Losing and time are good at killing a player's confidence and ability. If you want Aaron Rogers instead of the last X number of Lions quarterbacks then the organization has to be patient. And honestly even with Tom Brady are the Lions going to the playoffs........not likely.